forexgreenland

[08:56:29 06/10/08] Stalion : helloo everyone..

[09:00:20 06/10/08] Stalion : not much news with the major pairs today except CAD and Au..

[09:03:17 06/10/08] Stalion : hope you'all had a wonderful weekend...

[09:04:12 06/10/08] klho83 : Hope have a good start today
price is about breaking new lows ,

[09:24:22 06/10/08] klho83 : breaking new lows?

[09:25:38 06/10/08] Stalion : gbpusd

[10:24:57 06/10/08] masif1 : morning all

[10:25:11 06/10/08] Stalion : We put a BUY STOP ON GBPUSD @ 1.7605...1st target @ 1.7655..40

pip sto loss..

[10:26:40 06/10/08] Stalion : hi masif

[10:28:12 06/10/08] Stalion : 2nd target @ 1.7685, 3rd target @ 1.7715

[11:08:38 06/10/08] Stalion : range trading monday...due to lack of high impact news..

[11:38:34 06/10/08] Stalion : buy stop triggered..

[12:22:07 06/10/08] fxjedi : Long term trends rarely reverse quickly & markets often

over-shoot & tease convictions with counter moves over a period of time prior to making any

sustained turn.. Reacting to market warning signs with good risk adjusted analytics is an

integral part of all long & medium term strategic play.. Since all of us are only transient

player in a never ending game where major tops & bottoms are only evident in hindsight, one

should be content with placing the right bets on part of a move instead of kicking our

behind over all those "lost pips" looking at the charts afterward..

[12:30:51 06/10/08] fxjedi : but mine havnt trigered,Stal,since you said to put 3 pip spread

on top of bid prices,should i still leave pending order?

[12:34:40 06/10/08] Stalion : no probs...jedi...forgot to add the 3 pip spreads on

cable...so the pending buy still stands,ok...

[12:36:23 06/10/08] fxjedi : roger dat

[12:42:48 06/10/08] masif1 : dont worry fxjedi - its a good thing u havent triggered, as i

think its about to hit our s/

[12:53:44 06/10/08] takbal : hi guys

[12:53:49 06/10/08] fxjedi : seems stal is right about market on range trading,not much

movement from wat i can see

[12:55:56 06/10/08] fxjedi : hey takbal

[13:01:55 06/10/08] fxjedi : so my buy stop is waiting to triger at 17608

[13:03:38 06/10/08] fxjedi : triger is hit

[13:04:41 06/10/08] Stalion : nice one,jedi.....for those dat got stopped,pls reenter

[13:12:55 06/10/08] Stalion : remember to take off half profits when +20 pips ahead as price

is going ahead in our favour...then adjust sl to entry

[13:16:34 06/10/08] fxjedi : wow,look at gu fly!!!

[13:18:05 06/10/08] Stalion : put a 25 pip trailing stop on it now...

[13:18:47 06/10/08] fxjedi : any 3rd target,Stal?

[13:19:32 06/10/08] fxjedi : almost 10 pips to 2nd taget 17655

[13:20:26 06/10/08] Stalion : [10:28:12 06/10/08] Stalion : 2nd target @ 1.7685, 3rd target @ 1.7715



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[14:49:22 06/10/08] masif1 : damn damn damn damn damn

[14:49:27 06/10/08] masif1 : got stopped out

[14:49:49 06/10/08] masif1 : didnt get a chance to out the triling sl in

[14:53:22 06/10/08] masif1 : put the trailing sl

[15:18:33 06/10/08] masif1 : whats happened to gbp

[15:18:45 06/10/08] masif1 : going down down down

[16:10:09 06/10/08] klho83 : Bad Start. Stopped out!


Helloo batangas,

Lets take a good look at this chart and generate some insights here...
1.7839-1.7513=0.0326
0.3*0.0326=0.00978
1.7513+0.00978=1.7610 (30% sell window)
1

That is the region where price turned around and went further bearish on the downside. You

take the high price of the current move and subtract it from the low of the current move.

The low is the price made just before the market began to trade higher against the

prevailing downtrend.
As soon as the market establishes an intermediate low and starts to trade higher from this

low, subtract the high (the high price at the begining of the prevailing trend prior to this

intermediate low) from the low.This will equal the total price range of the original

move...0.0326
Multiplying the range by 30% and adding it to the low foretells the begining of the 30% sell

window.
But I could hear some of you say''Hey, didnt he talk about price having a high probability

of a turnaround at the 60% window? Why 30%''
''Using 60%retracement for buy and sell windows is an excellent technique for most

markets.However when the trend in a market is extremely strong, the market will begin to

make small and quck corrections that usually last three to five bars in intraday trading.
The stronger the market, the shorter the correction time period. These strongly trending

markets will normally see the market retrace to around 30% of the original move. This level

still offers some very good reversal signals.'' John Crane - Advanced Swing Trading..
So my anticipation of price reaching the 60% sell window was wrong due to the strongly

trending move on the GBPUSD.It got round the 30% window and thats more it could chew before

going back down.



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By our extrapolation, we could see price on the GBPUSD reaching a low of 1.7264..
So for a good entry, we could either sell now or wait for price to finish its upward retracement and break the support in line with the prevailing downtrend to our next low or support at 1.7264.
Since our analysis was taken from the hourly chart(1 hr), it might take sometime before we reach our target.