ForexAnalysis

Daily Analysis

Today’s US Dollar Trading

• USD mixed
• EURO fails at highs

Overnight Preview

• Look for more booksquaring
• Quiet ahead of US data in the morning

Looking Ahead

• 7:30 AM CDT Durable Goods forecast +0.1%
• 9:00 AM CDT New Home Sales forecast 490K

Summary
The USD is mixed to end New York today after a correction overnight driven by rhetoric and stops. Traders note that the Greenback traded two-sided in Asia vesting both sides of the New York close and volumes were light suggesting that technical trade was dominate. Once the European session opened the USD began to climb a bit led by a drop in EURO as enthusiasm for an ECB rate hike faded. German manufacturing data was on the lighter side and the failure of the EURO to score another high after the psychological 1.60 handle traded yesterday added to a bout of profit-taking by nervous longs. Opening lower in NY the EURO ran for lows and printed at 1.5860 during the day; a close under the 1.5900 handle appears to have solidified the bears argument that a correction is in the works. Aggressive forex trader can add to shorts on a close under the 1.5880 area. Cable rotated lower for a low print at 1.9771 and found stops all the way down layered 1.9880, 1.9850, 1.9820 and 1.9800 but support ahead of the 1.9750 area suggests that the rate will bounce; look to sell a 1.9880 area bounce in my view. MPC minutes showed a split vote at the last meeting and the doves are not agreed moving forward; seen as mildly bullish the rate was unable to hold and remained under pressure all day. USD/JPY had a brief bout of short-covering and a rally to 103.50 area but as expected the rate found offers on the approach and fell back for lows at 102.74 before bouncing again for a short-squeeze to 103.80 area; close around 103.50 suggests the top of the range. In my view, the USD has had a low-volume rally that has kept prices within established ranges. I would look to sell the rally and expect a break lower on US data due out tomorrow. Look for poor housing to push the Greenback tomorrow but tonight expect a quiet overnight session.

Analysis by: Forexpros.com written by Jason Alan Jankovsky

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