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Reflexivity
Over the past three months, the EUR and GBP have dropped tremendously. Many will suggest that the dramatic demise in these currencies is due to a variety of economic factors. Each theory or suggestion has its validity, but the teacher itself is still the electronic marketplace.
How closely are these economic factors of our physical reality closely relating to the price movements of the electronic marketplace?
I ask this in relation to the recent rise of oil prices. Basic economics explains the price relativity between supply and demand. When the supply is abundant and the demand is low, the prices are usually feasible(low) and steady. But when the demand increases and the supply decrease the prices usually increases. Well the recent rise in oil prices have not been a major contributor to this theory due to the vast amount of oil tankers around the globe that have been sitting loaded with crude waiting on prospective buyers(the physical exchange of commodities).
I am a strong advocate of George Soros theory of reflexivity that briefly states:
"...... the passive relationship the “cognitive function” and the active relationship the “participating function,” and the interaction between the two functions I call “reflexivity.” Reflexivity is, in effect, a two-way feedback mechanism in which reality helps shape the participants’ thinking and the participants’ thinking helps shape reality in an unending process in which thinking and reality may come to approach each other but can never become identical. Knowledge implies a correspondence between statements and facts, thoughts and reality, which is not possible in this situation. The key element is the lack of correspondence, the inherent divergence, between the participants’ views and the actual state of affairs. It is this divergence, which I have called the “participant’s bias,” which provides the clue to understanding the course of events. That, in very general terms, is the gist of my theory of reflexivity."
So my thesis projects the inquiry...
When will the market correct itself?
I am open to any suggestions and opinions. Because in due time a new trend will evolve causing bullish investors to earn a substantial amount of profits on the CORRECTIONS of the GBP and EUR currencies. The key is timing and strategy....what do you think?
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