Trader123's trading ideas - Page 10

trader123 · 08-08-2008, 02:40 PM

Some Thoughts on the Forex Market

For the past two weeks, US dollar has surprised us with its great rally. I think one of the major reason for the rally is falling oil price. Another is that other countries seem to be in bad economy condition as well. So when the whole world is in trouble, the investment community always favours US.

I do not think this US dollar rally is sustainable. Some of my readers had asked me when this rally will end. I do not want to make guesses as this can be damaging in my trading. I prefer to react only when the charts tell me so.

If US dollar continue to be strong, I will be interested to buy USDJPY.
If US dollar cools down, I will be interested to short USDCHF or USDCAD or Silver.

Besides the US crosses, I will be interested to short EURJPY on rebound. It had been easy money to borrow JPY to buy EUR for the past 7 years, but I think this trade has gone too far. I am making a BOLD prediction that we will not see EURJPY rising above the peak of 170 for the next 3 months.

Currently I had long position in EURGBP, reason being both Europe and UK economies are weak, I see no reason for EURGBP to breakout of its sideway trading.

trader123 · 08-11-2008, 03:50 PM

Market expects the Fed to raise interest in the next 12 months and the worst for the US banks may be over. These are bullish signs for US dollar.

MACD and Parabolic had signaled buy for USDJPY.

Bought 10,000 USDJPY at 109.90
Stop level at 108.80
Target level at 111.00

Chart: Forex and Binary Trading: Bullish on USDJPY

trader123 · 08-12-2008, 01:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by trader123

Market expects the Fed to raise interest in the next 12 months and the worst for the US banks may be over. These are bullish signs for US dollar.

MACD and Parabolic had signaled buy for USDJPY.

Bought 10,000 USDJPY at 109.90
Stop level at 108.80
Target level at 111.00

Chart: Forex and Binary Trading: Bullish on USDJPY

Yesterday 11 August, I had bought bought 10,000 USDJPY at 109.90, stop level at 108.80, target level at 111.00.

The trend has turned in favour of the US dollar. Falling oil and commodities prices have provided relieve to the US economy. Market expects Japan economy to approach recession has weaken the yen.

Currently USDJPY is trading at 110.00, unrealised gain is US$10.29.

Chart: Forex and Binary Trading: Review on USDJPY position

trader123 · 08-12-2008, 01:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by trader123

EURGBP has in range trading, between 0.7830 to 0.8020 for the past 2 weeks. I think this trend will continue as both Europe and UK are weak.

Currently EURGBP is trading at the bottom of the range now, at 0.7853.

Bought 10,000 EURGBP at 0.7844
Stop level at 0.7750
Target level at 0.7930

Last week I had bought 10,000 EURGBP at 0.7844, stop level at 0.7750, target level at 0.7940.

Today EURGBP has rebounded as there is data to show that housing slump in UK had deepened. Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said the number of real-estate agents and surveyors reporting lower prices exceeded those reporting gains by 83.9% last month as the credit squeeze brought the market to a virtual standstill.

Currently EURGBP is trading at 0.7835, unrealised loss is US$34. EURGBP is moving back up into the range, so my loss should turn into profit pretty soon.

Chart: Forex and Binary Trading: Review on EURGBP position

I can be contactable at metal.commodity@gmail.com.

trader123 · 08-12-2008, 03:27 PM

Shorted EURJPY

EURJPY is a carry trade that has been very profitable for the past 7 years, but I think this carry trade is overdone.

Both MACD and Bollingerband are signaling that EURJPY could go down lower.

Shorted 10,000 EURJPY at 163.98
Stop level at 165.60
Target level at 162.40

Chart: Forex and Binary Trading: Shorted EURJPY

trader123 · 08-13-2008, 01:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by trader123

Shorted EURJPY

EURJPY is a carry trade that has been very profitable for the past 7 years, but I think this carry trade is overdone.

Both MACD and Bollingerband are signaling that EURJPY could go down lower.

Shorted 10,000 EURJPY at 163.98
Stop level at 165.60
Target level at 162.40

Chart: Forex and Binary Trading: Shorted EURJPY

Yesterday I had shorted 10,000 EURJPY at 163.98, stop level at 165.60, target level at 162.40.

EURJPY continues to move down sharply.

Japan's gross domestic product shrank an annualized 2.4 percent in the three months ended June 30 after expanding a revised 3.2 percent in the first quarter. This may weaken the yen and cause a rebound in EURJPY.

I decide to take profit first. Bought back at 162.78, profit is US$108.82.

Chart: Forex and Binary Trading: EURJPY profit is up 120 pips

trader123 · 08-13-2008, 12:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by trader123

Last week I had bought 10,000 EURGBP at 0.7844, stop level at 0.7750, target level at 0.7940.

Today EURGBP has rebounded as there is data to show that housing slump in UK had deepened. Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said the number of real-estate agents and surveyors reporting lower prices exceeded those reporting gains by 83.9% last month as the credit squeeze brought the market to a virtual standstill.

Currently EURGBP is trading at 0.7835, unrealised loss is US$34. EURGBP is moving back up into the range, so my loss should turn into profit pretty soon.

Chart: Forex and Binary Trading: Review on EURGBP position

I can be contactable at metal.commodity@gmail.com.

Last week Thurday 7 August, I had bought 20,000 EURGBP at 0.7844, stop level at 0.7750, target level at 0.7940.

The Bank of England published its quarterly inflation forecasts on Wednesday against a backdrop of sharply rising price pressures and a slowing economy. Governor Mervyn King said "The current period of above-target inflation, although very marked, will be temporary and inflation will return to the 2 percent target."

GBP comes under assault following the release of BOE inflation report pushing EURGBP up.

I took profit on 0.7930, profit is US$322.

trader123 · 08-14-2008, 12:13 PM

System signals buy for EURUSD

As mentioned in my previous posting, US dollar has rallied for the past one month. US dollar has rushed up too fast and too steep. Fundamentally and technically I think this rally is not sustainable. All you need is one bad US economic data to turn this US dollar direction around.

AUDUSD is already up, gold and silver price is already up, crude oil is already up, but EURUSD is still trading in a tight band of 1.4829 - 1.4967. In my view EURUSD is lagging behind. If USD is weaken, then EURUSD should go up higher.

Both Comm Channel and Stochastic had signaled buy for EURUSD

Bought 10,000 EURUSD at 1.4919
Stop level at 1.4818

Chart:Forex and Binary Trading: System signals buy for EURUSD

trader123 · 08-19-2008, 03:54 PM

AUDUSD had fallen sharply from 0.9775 to 0.8600 in just 4 days. AUDUSD seems to have bottomed and due for a rebound.

Both Bolingerband and Stochastics had signaled buy for AUDUSD.

According to 10min chart, if AUDUSD rebounds, it will form double-bottom.

Bought 10,000 AUDUSD at 0.8663
Stop level at 0.8559
Target level at 0.8787

Chart: http://binarytrading.blogspot.com/20...r-rebound.html

trader123 · 08-20-2008, 05:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by trader123

AUDUSD had fallen sharply from 0.9775 to 0.8600 in just 4 days. AUDUSD seems to have bottomed and due for a rebound.

Both Bolingerband and Stochastics had signaled buy for AUDUSD.

According to 10min chart, if AUDUSD rebounds, it will form double-bottom.

Bought 10,000 AUDUSD at 0.8663
Stop level at 0.8559
Target level at 0.8787

Chart: Forex and Binary Trading: AUDUSD due for a rebound

AUDUSD is up 50 pips

Yesterday I had bought 10,000 AUDUSD at 0.8663, stop level at 0.8559, target level at 0.8787.

Today AUDUSD is trading at 0.8713, unrealised profit is US$50.00.

Main reason for the rise in AUDUSD is that USD strength has peaked, and looks like USD crosses are in consolidation now. It is another confirmation that my trading system works.

To know more about my trading system, send an email to me at metal.commodity@gmail.com.