Trader123's trading ideas - Page 12

trader123 · 09-01-2008, 02:46 PM

EURGBP range trading maintains

EURGBP has been trading in a range for 4 months. Resistance level is at 0.8105 and support is at 0.7796.

Fundamentally both Europe and UK economies are weak, and both economies are likely to cut interest rate over the next few months. I believe this range trading will maintain.

Currently EURGBP is trading at the resistance level, hence it is good opportunity to short. In addition my proprietory trading system had signal SELL for NZDUSD.

Shorted 10,000 EURGBP at 0.8105
Stop level at 0.8208
Target level at 0.7909

Chart: Forex & Binary Trading: EURGBP range trading maintains

trader123 · 09-02-2008, 09:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by trader123

Bearish on New Zealand dollar

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut interest rates for the first time in 5 years on 24 July 08. Reserve Bank of New Zealand reported that economic activity is likely to remain weak over the remainder of 2008.

Retail sales had fallen by the most in 4 years and consumer confidence hitting record lows, the New Zealand dollar has weakened to the lowest level in 6 months.

RBNZ Governor Bollard promising more rate cuts and the futures curve pricing such action, the New Zealand central bank has become the most aggressively dovish policy maker of the G10.

Further weakness is expected in NZD and for it to fall below 67 cents against the US dollar before end of September.

My proprietory trading system had signal SELL for NZDUSD.

Shorted 10,000 NZDUSD at 0.6962
Stop level at 0.7080
Target level at 0.6766

Chart: Forex & Binary Trading: Bearish on New Zealand dollar

Yesterday I had shorted 10,000 NZDUSD at 0.6962, stop level at 0.7080, target level at 0.6766. Details here.

Today Australia central bank had cut its interest rate by a quarter point to 7%, causing AUDUSD to plunge down, and dragged NZDUSD down as well.

Currently NZDUSD is trading at 0.6842, profit is up 138 pips, US$137.60.

I believe US dollar strength will continue until Australia, New Zealand, Europe and UK are done with their interest rate cut, which will take another 6 months at least in my view.

Hence I think its not too difficult to make money in the forex market by shorting EURUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD and GBPUSD during this period.

My trading system is still signal SELL for NZDUSD. If you are interested to know my trading system, send an email to me at metal.commodity@gmail.com.

Chart: Forex & Binary Trading: NZDUSD trade profits 138 pips

trader123 · 09-02-2008, 01:35 PM

NZDUSD fell to a low of 0.6805 before rebounding up. I believe the overall trend for NZDUSD is still down, but it is oversold now, so we may see a rebound.

I decided to take profit first, bought back at 0.6871, profit is 91 pips, US$90.60.

trader123 · 09-02-2008, 05:48 PM

Canada Dollar Declines as Crude Oil Drops

Canada's currency fell after crude oil dropped to a five-month low and the U.S. dollar rose against other major currencies.

The Canadian dollar traded at C$1.0689 against its U.S. counterpart at 10:38 a.m., down 0.2 percent from yesterday's C$1.0667.

Crude oil for October delivery touched $105.46 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest since April 4, as Hurricane Gustav spared U.S. Gulf states the destruction caused by Katrina and Rita in 2005. Commodities, including oil, account for about half of Canada's export revenue.

The Bank of Canada meets tomorrow on interest rates.

Lower crude price is one of the things causing weakness in the Canadian dollar.

My trading system signals BUY for USDCAD.

Bought 10,000 USDCAD at 1.0714
Stop level at 1.0610
Target level at 1.0908

Chart: Forex & Binary Trading: Canada Dollar Declines as Crude Oil Drops

trader123 · 09-04-2008, 02:44 PM

USDCHF looks Toppish

Technically USDCHF looks toppish, possibly head and shoulder forming. MACD has signal SELL on the daily chart.

My proprietory system had signal SELL for USDCHF.

Shorted 10,000 at 1.1078
Stop level at 1.1182
Target level at 1.0932

Chart: Forex & Binary Trading: USDCHF looks Toppish

trader123 · 09-05-2008, 02:44 PM

My System signals SELL for USDCAD

Canada's dollar advanced after a government report showed the nation's employers added more jobs in August than economists forecast, indicating the Bank of Canada may refrain from cutting borrowing costs next month.

The currency remained higher after a report showed the U.S.
lost more jobs than forecast in August and the unemployment rate climbed to a five-year high.

Both Stochastic and Comm Channel signals SELL for USDCAD

Shorted 10,000 USDCAD at 1.0654
Stop level at 1.0785
Target level at 1.0487

Chart: Forex & Binary Trading: My System signals SELL for USDCAD

trader123 · 09-08-2008, 02:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by trader123

My System signals SELL for USDCAD

Canada's dollar advanced after a government report showed the nation's employers added more jobs in August than economists forecast, indicating the Bank of Canada may refrain from cutting borrowing costs next month.

The currency remained higher after a report showed the U.S.
lost more jobs than forecast in August and the unemployment rate climbed to a five-year high.

Both Stochastic and Comm Channel signals SELL for USDCAD

Shorted 10,000 USDCAD at 1.0654
Stop level at 1.0785
Target level at 1.0487

Chart: Forex & Binary Trading: My System signals SELL for USDCAD

On 5 September I had shorted 10,000 USDCAD at 1.0654, stop level at 1.0785, target level at 1.0487.

USDCAD had moved in my favour to 1.0571, profit is up 83 pips, US$77.62.

Non-farm payrolls fell by -84k last month, driving the unemployment rate to a 5 yeer high of 6.1 percent. This signals that US economy is getting very near to recession stage. Weak US economic data may weaken USD temporary.

My system is still signal SELL for USDCAD.

I had removed my stop level at 1.0785 and set a 30 pips trailing stop instead.

Trailing stop ensures that some profit is secured in this trade. With trailing stop, my stop-loss order is adjusted continually based on fluctuations in the market price, always maintaining 30 pips above the market price.

Chart: Forex & Binary Trading: USDCAD's trade profit up 83 pips

trader123 · 09-08-2008, 03:55 AM

Support level at 1.0550 creates a rebound for USDCAD, not taking any chance I decide to take profit first.

Bought back USDCAD at 1.0570, profit is 84 pips.

Anyone who is interested in my trading system, send an email to me at metal.commodity@gmail.com.

trader123 · 09-10-2008, 02:57 AM

On Monday 8 September, I had shorted 20,000 USDJPY at 108.43, stop level at 110.00, target level at 106.94.

The yen traded near a one-year high against the euro on speculation credit-market losses will spread, prompting investors to reduce holdings of higher-yielding assets funded with Japan's currency. Rising yen pushes USDJPY cross downwards.

USDJPY went below 106.94, reached my target level, so position is closed. Profit is 143 pips, US$264.44.

Chart: Forex & Binary Trading: USDJPY's profit up 143 pips (Closed)

trader123 · 09-11-2008, 03:06 PM

GBPJPY Should Fall Lower

U.K. economy is weak, I think GBP has to fall further, here are the reasons why:

Housing prices have been falling. They had slided 9 percent this year alone. That is the worst drop in 15 years. Central Bank chief Mervyn King says it has further to go.

Falling house prices and higher food and energy costs are going to dampen consumer spending even more in the coming months.

The British have taken on a record 1.4 trillion pounds ($2.8 trillion) in debt. And those borrowing costs arent getting any cheaper.

Bank of England policy maker David Blanchflower said job losses will triple as the economy slows.

So we should see British pound going lower.

My system has signaled SELL on GBPJPY.

Shorted 10,000 GBPJPY at 186.18
Stop level at 188.26
Target level at 183.31

Chart: Forex & Binary Trading: GBPJPY Should Fall Lower