Non-farm payroll (NFP) number is being released today at the exact same time that ECB President Trichet begins his press conference, which means that we could see unusual volatility at the morning of US hours. The ECB press conference and the Non-farm payroll report will either neutralize each other or be a toxic combination for the US dollar.
Trading the Non-farm payroll is usually very difficult given the inherent volatility of the currency pair but given the 2 big event risks – the ECB rate decision and the NFP release.
The market currently expects a bad number, so a negative non-farm payrolls report will not be enough of a surprise. The current forecast calls for 60k jobs to be shaved off US payrolls. If payrolls come any where near -90k, the dollar would collapse against the Euro as the market questions the viability of a 2008 rate hike by the Federal Reserve. If payrolls on the other hand are better than -40k, it suggests that the labor market is bad but not as bad as everyone may have feared, which would be dollar positive.
Currently I am holding 2 forex positions:
1. Shorted 100,000 NZD/USD at 0.7605, stop at 0.7645, target level at 0.7570.
Current price is 0.7604, unrealised gain is US$6.
2. Bought 100,000 USD/CHF at 1.0154, stop at 1.0120, target level at 1.0200.
Current price is 1.0159, unrealised gain is US$58.22.
Since I do not know the outcome Non-farm payroll and the ECB press conference, there are a few ways to reduce my risk:
a) I can close my positions before the announcement can miss out the opportunity to profit when my initial view is correct.
b) I can adjust my stop closer to my cost level but the great volatility from post NFP announcement can easily trigger stop to my positions.
c) I can hedge my position using binary options.
Binary option trading platform:
MANSION118.
1. Since I had shorted NZD/USD, I had bought Over for the binary option. So this means that in the situation that NZD/USD rises, I lost money from my convention forex position, at least I still win some money from my binary option.
I had bought US$80 for NZD/USD Over trade for Daily expiration, strike price is 0.7649, odds is 3. This means if NZD/USD goes above 0.7649 by 5am China time, I will win US$240. If not I will lose US$80, but I may gain much more from my forex position.
2. I had done the same for USD/CHF. Since I had bought NZD/USD, I had bought US$80 Under for the binary option. So this means that in the situation that USD/CHF falls, I lost money from my convention forex position, at least I still win some money from my binary option.
I had bought US$80 for USD/CHF Under trade for Daily expiration, strike price is 1.014, odds is 1.78. This means if USD/CHF goes below 1.014 by 5am China time, I will win US$142.40. If not I will lose US$80, but again I may gain much more from my forex position.
Linear Mode
