Loren Morlan

-----Original Message-----
From: rosstodd01 (AT) earthlink (DOT) net [mailto:rosstodd01 (AT) earthlink (DOT) net]
Sent: Wednesday, September 10, 2008 1:51 AM
To: rosstodd (AT) yahoo (DOT) com
Subject: Massive Dollar Short Opportunity



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>Massive Dollar Short Opportunity
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>One way or another, the dollar is going down. Hold on to your shorts
>because this will be the short of the decade.
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>Recent interventions in commodity markets, which has been a combination of
>short selling in the Gold market, and large institutions taking profit in a
>multi-year bull market in hard commodities such as Oil, has caused a short
>uptick in the dollar. The fed didn't raise interest rates, and US economic
>data did not get any better. Nor was there any watershed event or even a
>clear indication that the US economy is improving. There is no other reason
>the dollar is up, other than the previously mentioned factors. 34% of the
>world's wealth (calculated in dollars) is still USD based, so any sell off
>in stocks, commodities, and bonds (meaning a return to cash) means a boon
>for the USD.
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>This trade will be a long term play and should not be taken with large
>leverage unless you are a day-trader who will be in and out of the markets..
>There is an overwhelming amount of negative data supporting the argument for
>USD down, so let's examine what could potentially cause the USD to rise,
>which we shall consider as USD down trade exit strategies.
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>What can change this trade (stop loss / exit points) can be the following
>unlikely scenarios:
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>* Fed raises interest rates
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>* ECB cuts rates (unlikely because unlike the Fed, the ECB only
>mandate is to contain inflation)
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>* US Economy not only bottoms but shows signs of rapid growth (a
>bottom would not cause the dollar to rise without an increase in rates)
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>Anyone who previously thought it somehow negative to promote the shorting of
>the dollar should be silenced with Treasury's recent move, a message to the
>world saying that the US Government will backup free market capitalism with
>state sponsored socialism for the rich. None of these actions can possibly
>be good for the dollar in the long term. In the short term, as we see the
>Euro-bubble collapse, it is possible for the USD to rise slightly, but this
>should not be a prolonged trend. Euro weakness does not necessarily make a
>strong dollar, world markets are desynchronized and interest rate parity
>theory has stopped working years ago.
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>How to short the dollar?
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>* Long term close your eyes trade; sell now with no stop loss and
>take profit at USD Index 65.
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>* Short term automated trading systems with Sell USD bias. Tweak
>your systems to find USD short trends and take profits (systematic day
>trading)
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>* Non-USD portfolio (European/Asian bonds / equities)
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>* Long Swiss Francs or CHF based bonds
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>There may be a time when investment in the USD will be the trade, when once
>again foreign investors will flock to USA as a beacon of capitalism (meaning
>the ability to make money, which is restricted in many countries by strict
>government controls and the threat of potential nationalizations). Now is
>not that time.
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>http://eliteeservices.net/ Elite E Services FX Systems See more articles
>at www.eliteforexblog.com
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